About the Beer Purchasers' Index (BPI)

By: Lester Jones, NBWA Vice President, Analytics and Chief Economist

The NBWA Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) is an informal monthly statistical release giving distributors a timely and reliable indicator of industry beer purchasing activity. BPI is the only forward-looking indicator for the industry to measure expected beer demand (one month forward) in the marketplace. Similar to the widely recognized Purchasing Managers’ Index, the BPI is a net-rising index and a leading indicator of industry performance based on survey responses from participating beer purchasers. The index surveys beer distributors’ purchases across different segments and compares them to that of previous years' purchases. A reading greater than 50 indicates the segment is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates the segment is contracting.

The latest data:

Heading into the final months of 2022, there is a pessimistic outlook throughout the industry. The November BPI shows a low reading of 38 and the “at-risk” inventory index is relatively higher at 49. This continuation of lower BPI readings and low “at-risk” inventory are indicative of lower expected sales following fall price increases, news of increasing layoffs and a general slowing of the U.S. economy.

Looking across the segments for November:                                                          

• The imports index continues to point to expanding volumes for this segment with a reading of 59 in November 2022. This is a lower reading relative to the November 2021 reading, which was 68.
• The craft index at 25 is well below the November 2021 reading of 47.
• The premium lights index posted a reading of 41 below the November 2021 reading of 54.
• The premium regular index at 30 is below the November 2021 reading of 38.
• The below premium index at 47 is significantly higher than the November 2021 reading of 29 and continues to be the only segment to report a higher reading over the 2021 indexes.
• The FMB/seltzer index continues to contract, falling to 16 in November 2022 from a November 2021 reading of 31.
• Finally, the cider index reports a November 2022 index of 28 compared to 32 in November 2021.

BEER DISTRIBUTORS: Please sign up to participate and receive the first and only advance notice of expectations for increasing or decreasing sales. Complete the form at the very bottom of this page using your company’s primary beer purchaser’s contact information. For additional information, please email bpi@nbwa.org or ljones@nbwa.org.